Playoff Rest
Compare prior-round workload and series results, then explore probabilities from a model using team records and playoff history.
A team that finishes its series early can get more days off before the next round. Once two teams start playing each other, they have the same days between games. Their minutes played, travel and recovery can still differ.
Teams won more often against opponents coming off a long series. The comparison below is historical; it does not separate fatigue from team quality.
Among home-court teams that finished their own prior round early:
Early means at most one game beyond a sweep; long means two or three beyond a sweep. Both bars show the home-court team. When that team also played a long series, the rates reverse: 65.9% against a fresh opponent, 59.7% against a tired one.