Availability Cost
How do missing players relate to the final score margin? Compare historical associations, measured after games.
Missing a top player
The best-player-out estimate is similar in size to the home-court estimate. Bars compare the size of associations, not their direction: home court is associated with a higher margin, while the other conditions are associated with a lower margin. All are measured in points across 35,458 games, controlling for both teams' prior records. These are regression associations, not isolated causal effects.
How often players are absent
Top-player absences over time
Top-player absences are more than three times as common as in 1996-97. That is context for every figure above: the same absence was a rare event across most of this sample and is an ordinary one now.
The climb is not steady. It dips in 2023-24, the season the league first required 65 games for awards eligibility, and returns above the old line the year after.
Schedule estimates after accounting for absences
Measured absences change the schedule estimates little. Adding absence value to the regression moves every schedule coefficient by under 8%. Unmeasured absences and changes in minutes can still matter.
Show coefficient comparison
| SITUATION | SCHEDULE ONLYPTS | ABSENCE HELD FIXEDPTS | SHIFT% |
|---|---|---|---|
| On a back-to-back | 1.761 | 1.642 | 6.7 |
| Visiting altitude | 1.358 | 1.282 | 5.6 |
| Off an overtime | 0.577 | 0.534 | 7.4 |
| Schedule density | 0.275 | 0.265 | 3.8 |
Limits of the comparison
Availability is measured after the game. Every figure here is worked out after the fact, from who actually took the floor. Lineups are not settled until shortly before tip, so none of this forecasts a game.
Much of the margin remains unexplained. Final margins have a standard deviation of 13.6 points; the model's error after including team records, schedule, and absences is 12.4 points.
Absence is inferred from the rotation a team had actually been using, because a long-term injury can keep a player off the sheet entirely. Coverage starts in 1996-97, where the box scores this rests on begin.